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Baie gewag word gemaak oor die feit dat SA nou die twee kwartale van negatiewe groei, oftewel die “tegniese resessie”, ontsnap het. Hoewel dié syfer welkom is, is die ekonomie is nog lank nie uit die moeilikheid nie.

Eenvoudig gestel, selfs teen hierdie koerse groei die ekonomie nie naastenby sterk genoeg om Suid-Afrika se wesenlike ekonomiese probleme by te lê nie.

Die onaangepaste jaar-tot-jaar groeikoerse (waar bv. K3 2018 teenoor K3 2017 vergelyk word) gee ‘n beter aanduiding van die trae sub-1% groei wat vir die geheel van 2018 verwag word. Stats SA bereken die voorlopige gemiddelde groeikoers vir 2018 tot en met die derde kwartaal van 2018 teen ‘n pap 0,8%.

$\"\"$

Die breër resessie, wat ‘n hardnekkige verarming van Suid-Afrikaners per capita (gem. BBP-groei per persoon), swak werkskepping en gebrekkige privaat belegging insluit, is nog geensins ontsnap nie.

Maar dit is die afplatting in die syfers oor privaat vaste belegging, ook in die jongste vrystelling, wat baie kommer wek. Vaste kapitaalbelegging is ‘n sterk aanduiding van vertroue in die ekonomie – hierdie vertroue ontbreek eenvoudig. Dit is ook nie verbasend nie. Die ANC-regering hou verbete vol met skadelike beleidsvoorstelle (soos vir die konfiskering van privaat eiendom en ritse van anti-mark en teenproduktiewe regulasies).

$\"\"$

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Statistieke Suid-Afrika het vandeesweek die BBP-syfers vir die derde kwartaal van 2018 vrygestel. Daarvolgens het die Bruto Binnelandse Produk (BBP) teenoor die tweede kwartaal met 2,2% toegeneem (volgens die aangesuiwerde syfers). Baie gewag word gemaak oor die feit dat SA nou die twee kwartale van negatiewe groei, oftewel die “tegniese resessie”, ontsnap het. Hoewel dié […]

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