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Covid-19 en die reaksie daarop is een van die grootste gebeurtenisse van die afgelope dekades. Soos in ’n onlangse Sakeliga Webinaar gemeen is, is daar groot druk op beleidmakers om op te tree. Dit is egter nie altyd duidelik wat die korrekte optrede is nie. Verskillende lande volg verskillende benaderings en uitkomstes verskil ooglopend.

Die uitbreking van Covid-19 en die impak van inperkings van produksie en bedrywighede is enorm. Die besluite wat nou gemaak is, ongeag die verloop van die ongelukkige pandemie, gaan ’n enorme koste op die ekonomieë van die wêreld hef, plaaslik ook.

Na afloop van die mediese krisis lê ’n lang pad na ekonomiese herstel voor. Suid-Afrika se toestande voor die Covid-19-uitbreking was reeds ongunstig en sommige ontleders meen nou, met rede, dat plaaslike herstel hierna nog moeiliker sal wees as elders.

Lockdowns

Talle mense, nie net in Suid-Afrika nie, is nou gebonde aan amptelike state van inperkings (oftewel ‘lockdowns’) en ander streng regulatoriese beperkings. Die feit van die saak is dat die regerings se optrede nou heelwat bedrywighede en produksie gestaak het.

Beleidmakers meen dat stipulasies sekere ondernemings kan sluit terwyl ander noodsaaklike dienste en produkte kan voortgaan, met beperkte impak op “noodsaaklike” ondernemings.

Hierdie tipe denke getuig van ’n vertroue in sentrale beplanning en ’n oortuiging dat beleidmakers eenvoudig kan bepaal wat in die ekonomie noodsaaklik is en wat nie. Dit, meen ons, is ’n ekonomiese mistasting wat vinnig aan die lig sal kom, hoewel ons eers later die gevolge ten volle sal aanskou.

Die probleem is natuurlik ’n probleem van vermenigvuldiging soos probleem op probleem bou. In beginsel kan ons reeds verwag dat tekorte en leweringsprobleme, selfs in noodsaaklikhede, sal kan toeneem.

In hierdie tyd is dit belangrik om nie deur ekonomiese totale (‘aggregates’) om die bos gelei te word nie. Wanneer daar ’n lang ry voor ’n winkel vorm, soos wat reeds by sommige plekke die geval is, getuig dit van tekorte. Tekorte is natuurlik iets wat individue in hul verskillende situasies ervaar. Dit is veral belangrik om probleme van koördinasie in gedagte te hou

Verder sal dit ook gou aan die lig kom dat die ‘noodsaaklike’ struktuur van produksie baie kompleks inmekaarsteek. Dink aan ’n paar voorbeelde. Dit is nie om te sê die huidige voorbeelde deurslaggewend is nie, dit is slegs ter illustrasie van die beginsel dat die ekonomie ’n komplekse netwerk van samewerking is.

Vlindereffekte in komplekse stelsels

Wat as ’n pyp by ’n hospitaal bars? Is loodgietersdienste dan noodsaaklik? Loodgieters benodig egter items soos rubberseëls, gereedskap, soldeersel, en pype (en ander dinge waaraan ek nie eens kan dink nie!).

Oor die kort termyn kan bestaande voorrade natuurlik opgebruik word en selfs planne gemaak word. Maar een of ander tyd moet nuwe insette wat noodsaaklik is, maar moontlik nie nou aangewys of ingereken is nie, iewers geskep of ingevoer word.

Gestel ’n besige dokter wat nie goed kan sien nie se bril breek. Oogartse is miskien aangewys, maar is elke denkbare ding wat hulle benodig om lense te bestel en te laat vervaardig beskikbaar?

Dink dan ook aan die volgende voorbeelde en onthou dit is slegs waaraan ’n oorblufte ontleder vinnig gedink het. Kan ons werklik dink dat gevalle soortgelyk aan die volgende nie moontlik groot probleme in die komplekse kettings van voorsiening kan skep nie:

Wat as drukkerpapier of plakkers opraak in apteke of in hospitale? Wat van die gom agter op die plakkertjies by plaaslike vervaardiging? Word plakkertjies nog ingevoer?
Wat as die derdevlakverskaffer se webbladbediener se muurprop breek?
Wat as belangrike ’n glasafskorting iewers breek? Is glas noodsaaklik? Hoe vinnig kan dit herstel word?
Is batterye vir die elektroniese termometers noodsaaklik of nie? Kan dit eenvoudig gelewer word?
Moppe is miskien ‘noodsaaklik’ om skoon te maak, wat van voorskote?
Wat as ’n gloeilampie iewers in ’n noodsaaklike masjien op ’n kritiese tydstip blaas?

Dit is nie vergesog om te dink dat iemand wat nou iewers iets moes maak of invoer wat later nodig sal wees, nie besig is om dit te maak of in te voer nie. Ons sal later weet, maar dit herinner aan die ou stukkie wysheid wat lui

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
\n
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
\n
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
\n
For want of a rider the message was lost.
\n
For want of a message the battle was lost.
\n
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
\n
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Beleidmakers poog duidelik om aan soveel moontlike voorbeelde te dink en in te sluit, maar sal hulle werklik aan die talle kardinale ‘perdeskoenspykertjies’ kan dink? Of is daar informasie-uitdagings? Gaan die spreekwoordelike ‘perdeskoenspykertjies’ vinnig genoeg gesien en op die lys kom?

Noodgedwonge, meen ons, sal die lys van noodsaaklike ondernemings, dienste en personeel gedurig uitgebrei moet word. Dit gaan egter burokraties gebeur. Tekorte aan ‘perdeskoenspykertjies’ kan later selfs die essensiële sektore belemmer terwyl dit ook vir verbruikers groot pyn kan veroorsaak.Die oplossing is om soveel van die mark as moontlik te laat funksioneer.

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Covid-19 en die reaksie daarop is een van die grootste gebeurtenisse van die afgelope dekades. Soos in ’n onlangse Sakeliga Webinaar gemeen is, is daar

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