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NB: Voorlopige resultate soos teen 20 April 2020

Opsomming

Sakeliga onderneem tans ‘n deurlopende peiling om die impak van Covid-19 en die huidige rampbestuurmaatreëls te bepaal. Ongelukkig, soos in ons eerste peiling die geval was, is die resultate van ons volgende peiling steeds nie goeie nuus vir sake nie.

Terugvoer vanuit Sakeliga se ledebasis en breër netwerk dui steeds op ‘n uiters moeilike tyd vir baie ondernemings en ‘n akute verswakking van onmiddellike saketoestande. Die meeste respondente in ons peiling is betrokke in ondernemings met minder as 50 persone in diens en uit die resultate lei ons af dat die impak van Covid-19 op klein en medium ondernemings aansienlik is. Hoewel daar moontlike ligpunte is teenoor ons eerste peiling, is toekomsvooruitsigte vir sake, selfs ná die afloop van 12 maande, hoofsaaklik steeds negatief en onseker.

Wat egter bekommer is dat sowat twee derdes van al die betrokkenes wat ons vraelys ingevul het, ‘n verwagte daling in omset (of totale verkope) meer as ‘n kwart (of 25%) vir 2020 aangedui het.

Ons sien ook dat amper ‘n derde van die respondente aandui dat hul ondernemings as “noodsaaklik” ingevolge die Covid-19-regulasies aangewys is. Uit hierdie 180 respondente in “noodsaaklike” ondernemings het omtrent die helfte aangedui dat dit tans baie moeiliker is om die nodige insette vir bedrywighede te bekom. Vir drie uit elke vier van dié respondente is dit baie moeiliker of ietwat moeiliker om nodige produksie-insette te bekom. Dit bevestig natuurlik kommer oor die toegang tot en beskikbaarheid van selfs die insette wat “noodsaaklike” ondernemings vir hul bedrywighede benodig.

Resultate in ‘n neutedop

Ons tweede Covid-19-impakpeiling toon dat die huidige saketoestande vir 82% van respondente wat aan die peiling deelgeneem het aansienlik weens die Covid-19-krisis versleg het. 66% het aangedui dat toestande baie versleg het en vir 16% het dinge ietwat versleg. ’n Akute onmiddellike impak op ondernemings word beslis nog steeds waargeneem.
Ons sien steeds dat ‘n minderheid van respondente beter vooruitsigte teenoor tevore verwag. Dit bly die geval oor 30 dae, 90 dae en selfs ná die afloop van 12 maande, hoewel die 12 maande vooruitsigte ietwat beter vertoon.
Beduidende onsekerheid oor die toekoms is deurgaans aangedui en onsekerheid neem klaarblyklik toe hoe dieper die toekoms in gekyk word.
Daar is min respondente wat gemeen het dat die skade van Covid-19 uiteindelik grootliks deur hul ondernemings teengewerk sal kan word.
Twee derdes van die respondente verwag ‘n daling van meer as 25% in omset of totale verkope in 2020.
Sowat ‘n derde van die respondente het aangedui dat hul onderneming as noodsaaklik bestempel is. Meer as twee derdes van hierdie 180 respondente se ondernemings meen dit is baie moeiliker of ietwat moeiliker om nodige insette vir bedrywighede te bekom.
Respondente is ook die geleentheid gegee om algemene kommentaar te lewer. Oorhoofse temas in die kommentare toon begrip vir Covid-19 se bekamping, maar ook groot kommer oor die huidige maatreëls se impak op ondernemings.
Die respondente was meesal uit Gauteng en die Weskaap, en die meeste van die betrokke ondernemings het minder as 50 persone in diens. 607 respondente het deelgeneem.

Opnamesteekproef: ‘n E-posnuusbriefpeiling is aan Sakeliga se lede en breër netwerk versprei. Die eerste 607 respondente se terugvoer is in hierdie verslag verwerk. Die peiling is op 16 April 2020 begin en op 20 April 2020 afgesluit. Uit die provinsies is Gauteng (43%) en die Weskaap (17%) die sterkste verteenwoordig.

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Byna 76% van die respondente se ondernemings het 1 tot 10 persone in diens gehad, maar 95% van al die respondente vorm deel van ondernemings met minder as 50 persone in diens. Byna 13% van dié ondernemings vorm deel van ‘n bestaande sakekamer of sake-organisasie.

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Covid-19 se korttermynimpak: Volgens sowat 82% van die respondente het toestande oor die betrokke voorafgaande sewe dae baie versleg (65,7%) of ietwat versleg (16,1%) weens Covid-19 en die owerhede se reaksie daarop. Vir byna 16% het toestande dieselfde as vantevore gebly. Slegs ‘n skamele 2,5% beter toestande aangedui.

$\"\"$

Respondente is ook gevra oor hul vooruitsigte oor die volgende 30 en 90 dae (teenoor “sewe dae tevore”) en ná die afloop van die komende 12 maande (teenoor “vandag”) te evalueer.

30 EN 90 DAE-VOORUITSIGTE

Vooruitsigte oor die volgende 30 dae: 56% van die respondente het aangedui dat vooruitsigte oor die volgende 30 dae baie swakker (42,7%) of ietwat swakker (13,5%) as sewe dae tevore is. Slegs 5,9% van die respondente het baie beter (1,5%) of ietwat beter (4,4%) vooruitsigte oor die volgende 30 dae aangedui. Vir 15,7% was vooruitsigte dieselfde en 22,2% was onseker oor hul 30 dae-vooruitsigte.

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Vooruitsigte oor die volgende 90 dae: Byna 44% van die respondente het steeds baie swakker (32,9%) en ietwat swakker (11,1%) vooruitsigte oor die volgende 90 dae aangedui. Teenoor die 30 dae-vooruitsigte het onsekerheid wel toegeneem (van 22,2%) tot sowat 33% vir die 90 dae-vooruitsigte. By die 90-dae-uitkyk verwag byna 15% van die respondente baie beter (4,8%) of ietwat beter (9,9%) vooruitsigte. Sowat 16% verwag dieselfde vooruitsigte.

Hoewel die 90 dae-uitkyk effens beter met die 30 dae-uitkyk vergelyk, verwag amper die helfte 44% van die respondente steeds baie swakker (32,9%) of ietwat swakker (11,1%) vooruitsigte. Daarby is onsekerheid oor die 90-dae-uitkyk by ‘n aansienlike byna 3 uit elke 10 (32,8%) van respondente waargeneem.

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Vooruitsigte ná 12 maande: Die respondente is ook gevra om hul vooruitsigte ná die afloop van 12 maande teenoor “vandag” te evalueer. Byna 31% van die respondente het ietwat swakker (8,7%) of baie swakker (22,1%) vooruitsigte ná die afloop van 12 maande aangedui. 26,4% van die respondente het baie beter (14,3%) of ietwat beter (12%) vooruitsigte aangedui terwyl byna 36% onseker is oor die vooruitsigte ná 12 maande.

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Die bogenoemde resultate skets steeds ‘n prentjie van ‘n akute negatiewe effek op onmiddellike saketoestande. Veral die 30-dae-uitkyk, maar ook die 90-dae-uitkyk is oorheersend negatief. Verder neem onsekerheid toe soos die toekomsuitkyk verleng word. By die 12 maande-uitkyk is diegene wat beter vooruitsigte teenoor diegene wat swakker vooruitsigte verwag min of meer gelykop, maar steeds gekantel na ‘n negatiewe uitkyk.

Daar is wel aanduidings dat sommige sakelui se vooruitsigte van negatief na positief skuif soos die toekomsuitkyk na die 12 maande tydperk verleng word – ‘n moontlike ligpunt. Hierdie tendense sal oor tyd gemonitor moet word voordat sterk gevolgtrekkings daaroor gemaak kan word.

Mate wat Covid-19 se skade teengewerk kan word: Die respondente is ook gevra om hul indrukke te gee oor die mate waartoe Covid-19 se uitwerking uiteindelik in hul onderneming teengewerk sal kan word. ‘n Kommerwekkende byna 44% van respondente het gemeen dat min gedoen kan word om die skade uiteindelik teen te werk. Meer as 25% was van mening dat die skade tot ‘n beperkte mate teengewerk sal kan word. Slegs sowat 15% van die respondente meen dat die skade uiteindelik grootliks teengewerk sal kan word en sowat 13% was onseker hieroor.

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Noodsaaklike ondernemings: In die peiling het 180 (byna 30%) van die 607 respondente aangedui dat die ondernemings waar hulle hoofsaaklik betrokke is as noodsaaklik aangewys is. ‘n Opvolgvraag is aan dié respondente gestel om te bepaal hoe maklik of moeilik dit in sodanige ondernemings is om die nodige insette vir bedrywighede te bekom. Sowat 78% van die respondente in dié ondernemings het aangedui dat dit baie moeiliker (50,6%) of ietwat moeiliker (27,2%) is om die nodige insette vir bedrywighede te bekom. Ons beklemtoon dat sulke belemmeringe juis deur die “noodsaaklike” ondernemings genoem word.

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Verwagte impak op totale verkope (omset): In die volgende vraag is al die (607) respondente versoek om ‘n aanduiding te gee van Covid-19 se impak op totale verkope (omset) vir 2020 in geheel in vergelyking met 2019. ‘n Kommerwekkende sowat 62%, of naastenby twee derdes, van die respondente verwag ‘n daling van meer as 25% in hul totale verkope (omset). In totaal verwag 87% van die respondente ‘n daling in hul ondernemings se totale verkope in 2020 teenoor 2019. Die omvang van die groot verwagte dalings wat baie van die respondente aandui is egter baie kommerwekkend.

$\"\"$

Oop kommentare: Respondente is die geleentheid gegee om oop kommentaar te lewer. Hoewel dieper ontleding moontlik is, behels die oorhoofse temas begrip vir Covid-19 se bekamping, maar ook groot kommer oor die huidige maatreëls se impak op ondernemings.

Einde.

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